COVID45: June 2020, U.S.A

I read and hear numbers, but they don’t always answer the questions I’m asking.

 So, since the end of April, I have been maintaining my own database, using the daily figures from Johns Hopkins. 

This is my analysis for the month of June, 2020 in the USA:    

New cases: 846,347 (up from 720,767 in May)
Resolved cases: 298,873 (275,873 recovered, 23,042 died)
% of resolved cases that resulted in death: 7.71% (down from 12.46% in May)
Increase of active cases: 547,432 (44% higher than end of May)

Total active cases: 1,788,482
% of total cases since onset that are currently still active: 68%
In other words, when you hear on the nightly news that there have been 2.5 million cases in the US, 68% of those people are sick right now.

June testing: 15,269,354 (up from 10,705,709 in May)
Positive %: 5.54% (down from 6.73% in May)
Death “projection”: 265,317

This “projection” is the result of taking June’s % of resolved cases resulting in death (7.71%), applying it currently infected people (1,788,482) and adding that result to the number of dead as of June 30th (127,425).

 This resulting death “projection” of 265,317 does not take into account anyone newly infected from July 1 going forward. Given that the increase of active cases for the 7-day period ending June 30 was 210,153 (13.31%), my “death projection” will pale in comparison to the actual number of American lives that will be lost.

 What does my close friend and confidant, the critically unclaimed Loop Granddady think of the precautions Americans are taking to stop the spread of this plague? Please check out our new tune, the Massk.

Thanks and good luck!

the Massk by Loop Granddaddy
© 2020 Hannah’s Dad’s Music/Samsongs BMI

Do the math. Please

 Been seeing a lot of people debating (arguing) over COVID-45 math. It’s always people downplaying the threat, puffing out their chests, demanding their spa day or beer fest (their “freedom”), and they throw around some minuscule percentages to support their positions. Problem is, they simply don’t know basic math. And they’re so damn proud of their ignorance. 

 Let me start by pointing out that 0.01 is not 1/10 of 1%. It’s just not! I’ll offer proof later.

 A couple of important notes when discussing COVID rates:
– Our data is incomplete. In the grand scheme of things, we know diddly squat! We have no clue how many cases there were before we starting recognizing them. How many people went to the doctor with symptoms in January and February that were not even considered as possible COVID infections?
– Less than 2% of Americans have been tested.

What we do “know” (numbers taken from Johns Hopkins this evening)
– There have been 6,231,182 tests to date.
– 17.16% of tests were positive (we could get into a whole other discussion over possible interpretations of that little nugget), resulting in:
– 1,069,424 confirmed cases in the US.
– These cases fit into one of two categories, active or resolved.
– A case can be resolved in only one of two ways, the patient has either recovered or they have died.
– 852,481 cases are active and 216,943 have been resolved.

 Active cases shouldn’t be considered in death count percentages because we have no idea how these cases will ultimately resolve. They’re ongoing, TBD, not concluded, still unresolved… 

Of the resolved cases:
153,947 survivors have recovered (71%)
62,996 souls have perished (29%)

29% OF COMPLETED CASES HAVE RESULTED IN DEATH!

———————————————————————-
Basic math lesson:
1) Can we agree that there are 100 pennies in a dollar?
2) Can we agree then that one penny is 1% of a dollar?
3) Can we agree that a whole dollar is written as $1.00?
4) Can we agree that a penny is written as 0.01?

Conclusion #1: 1% is written as 0.01. 5% is 0.05, etc.
Conclusion #2: If you disagree, you should go back to 5th grade (or refrain from publishing your ignorance, ffs).


Hydroxychloroquine

I don’t deny the probability that Trump has bought a ton of Novartis stock recently. Given his proclivities for graft, profiteering and money hoarding, it’s a natural conclusion.

Consider this though:

Trump. The germaphobe, is so terrified of getting sick that his doctors had to come up with a couple of placebos for him, just so he’d stfu and get a little work done on behalf of “his” country. Suddenly, Trump (or as he sees himself, Dr. Albert Schweitzer-Trump) starts pushing the “hydroxychloroquine and zinc” that he thinks he’s being treated with. 

In another week or two, the curve will be flattened by the social distancing promoted by leaders such as President Newsom and President Cuomo and suddenly our stable genius will proclaim that his miracle discoveries have worked. He’ll immediately nominate himself for a series of Nobel Prizes in science, medicine, presidenting and game show hosting (retroactive). Throw in an Emmy or two for his great press conference ratings.

And voila, we’re great again. 

#COVID45

My Dream

 I rarely engage Trumpholes. What’s the point? They seem impervious to logic, incapable of cogent debate, devoid of original thought. On rare occasions, I slip up and troll them a little. It’s cruel, I know, like a cat toying with a moth. Lord, please forgive me. I am weak.

 Today, I saw a Facebook post from Adam Schiff. (Full disclosure. This guy is my hero! I literally wrote him in on my primary ballot for President). Chairman Schiff posted today saying, “Once we’ve recovered, we need a nonpartisan commission to review our response and how we can better prepare for the next pandemic.” You know, like we did after Pearl Harbor and 9/11. 

I commented, 
“Can’t wait until you’re Attorney General in January! You’ll get to the bottom of this #COVID45 mess. One word of advice, pace yourself! There’s going to be SOOOOO much to unravel.”

 Well… woodwork squeaks and out come the freaks.

  This one troll told me I won the stupidest comment of the thread award (which I suspect he is uniquely qualified to hand out), and then he (inadvertently?) quoted Adam Schiff’s Impeachment mantra, “facts matter” and pasted an 800 word Trumpifesto wherein the author recounted Comrade Donald’s many, many achievements – curing polio, discovering algebra, building Noah’s Ark (he’s a great builder), mastering time travel etc., all despite being treated very unfairly, and a lot of people are saying this, by ungrateful libtard lefties.

At least that’s what I guessed it said. I don’t read ALL-CAPS propaganda. 

 Anyway, this one gentleman comments to me, “you’re having a wet dream”. Now, I’ve been pondering what impresses me more about that statement and, frankly, I’m at a loss. Was it that he finds the topic somehow erotic or that he spelled “you’re” correctly?

 But here’s my “wet dream”. Melania tries to turn Lindsey Graham out and…. oh. No no no no no. That’s a different dream. My apologies. Be best!

 My dream is that on Inauguration Day 2021, when Trump has barricaded himself in the Oval Office squealing live on air to Sean Hannity, “The election was rigged, it’s deep state this and a failed Dem coup hoax that, no President has ever been treated so badly” and the Secret Service breaks down the door and hauls his pitiful ass out of the building, kicking and screaming like a four year old. They drag him outside to the waiting Marine One escape pod and, for his final temper tantrump, he drops to the tarmac and starts spinning in a circle like Curly from the Three Stooges. 

THAT, my friend, is MY wet dream. 

MAGA!

Baseball, Ray

 It’s really hitting me hard today. We’re all struggling to adjust and adapt, to find some normalcy in this madness, to come up with a routine, to live in the moment, to find some joy and beauty among the fear and sadness.

Today’s a tough pill to swallow. I’ve always said that the saddest day of the year is the last game of the World Series. Today is even sadder.

 It’s not just a game. 

 This too shall pass. 

LOVE!

Pandemic 2020 – 3.25.20

Facebook’s asking me, “What’s on your mind Joel”. Well, glad that you asked 🙂

Here’s something I heard today:

“My mother is not expendable, and your mother is not expendable, and our brothers and sisters are not expendable and we’re not going to accept the premise that human life is disposable,” Cuomo said. “We’re not going to put a dollar figure on human life.” 

NY President Andrew Cuomo, March 24, 2020

May I be frank for a minute? I’ve been doing my best to remain positive, to not resort to invective, to post mostly positive commentary, to take the high road, to offer hope, to focus on “We’re going to be fine”. And I believe that the vast majority of us will be.

But I’m a little angry tonight. My step-son Jason just said, “Trump is a piece of shit” and I thought, “No. That’s not right. He’s like 10 pieces of shit fused together”. This fucking syphilitic, narcissistic, cloven hoofed, fucking loquat is going to kill an untold number of Americans with his “commerce first, what’s in it for me?” immoral, sick, psychotic, profiteering off of misery, bull fucking shit. And down in Alabamy, and Oklahoma, and in Evangelical *clusters*, ignorant buffoons are having their #COVID45 rallies and incubating mass destruction. And in some ways, that’s just fine. Let their God damned Lord sort it out. But what about the “collateral damage”? It won’t just be jackass trolls getting sick, and suffocating our health care system and stacking their neighbors corpses in refrigeration trucks because there’s too fucking many to bury and no one to bury them. Fer fux ache people. Do you EVER think about the rest of the world?

Breathe, Joel. Breathe.

Now breathe again.

Exhale.

Listen. I’m heartened that many, many state Governors are in charge now, not Cinnamon Hitler. I’m grateful to live in a state where California President Newsom is calling the shots, not this useless game show host and serial-failed businessman. And I’m grateful to live in a community that seems to be pulling for each other and, for the most part, following the advice of the Professionals. 

Today was wonderful for the most part. I heard and saw a lot of beauty in this darkness (it’s everywhere if you look hard enough for it) and I loved and I felt love. And I know I’ll wake up in the morning (that’s the plan anyway) next to my Sweetheart, my soulmate, my wife and my Perfect Plague Partner. Yes, we’re scared and we’re worried, more for our loved ones and our neighbors and humanity in general than our own personal selves, but we remain optimistic that this too shall pass and somehow, something good will come of it. I KNOW it will.

For the survivors anyway. 

Goodnight, my friends. Sleep tight. Tomorrow is another day.

LOVE!
Joel

P.S. OMG. Malachi Constant, Unk, the Space Wanderer just popped into my head. I think it’s the perfect time to read Sirens of Titan again! My favorite book and totally relevant to our current situation and the hope that I am cultivating.

Pandemic 2020

March 22, 2020

I’ll say this about the pandemic. It has truly helped me focus on today.

 I know I’m my best self when I’m living a life of gratitude, but it isn’t always easy to remember to stay in a positive space.

Until now.

 I’m finding that, once I got past the initial terror and shock, and turned the news off, life has become great. I wake up each day next to the woman I love with all my heart. I’m blessed to work from home and tomorrow Nickie starts working from home too. I check in with my family and we tell each other that we love each other. I scroll past the horror stories on Facebook and land on the many positive posts where people are sharing music and humor and stories of kindness and hope. I feel such gratitude that we are healthy and fed, that we still have income and medical insurance. We are so blessed. We have what we truly need for today. 

 This afternoon, we drove on empty freeways enjoying the clearest blue skies we’ve seen in forever, arriving at the ranch where our horses were delighted to see us. We sat out in their pasture for hours, the horses coming up and putting their faces against ours. They feel the energy and just love on us as we love on them. Today, they actually led us to their leads, imploring us to take them to the hitching post where we groom them and let them eat the long grass. At these times, there is no worry in our worlds, just pure love. I’m so, so very grateful for today.

 Afterwards, we drove to our favorite burger joint, hoping against hope that the drive through (which we’ve never used before) would be open. It was! The first words to come through the speaker were a cheery, “Thank you so much for coming”, to which we replied, “Thanks so much for being here for us!” I’m finding this everywhere I go. People actually seem happier, more courteous, nicer. Maybe it’s just the way I’m seeing the world, but either way I’m feeling a lot of love.

 As far as getting sick, I’m pretty convinced that I’ve had this crud for a week or more. Seriously. I’ve had mild sniffles and headaches and sore throat and a pesky little dry cough. Of course, this is probably just first week of spring allergies, but if I remain convinced that I have low grade symptoms of the virus, I’m no longer afraid that I’m going to get it. Liberation from fear is so powerful.

Bottom line, I feel happier than I have in a long time. Every day is a gift, a miracle, and I’m so grateful for all of the blessings in my life.

As bobwhite once said, “Tomorrow’s gonna be what tomorrow’s gonna be tomorrow.”

Until then, today is pretty great! 

Love to all! I hope you’re finding peace and hope and love and humor. You deserve it

The most important election of my life

Listen, I don’t love Hillary, but I consider myself a realist.

Government is government. Neither Drumpf, nor anyone else, can wave a wand and be that “change agent” some of his followers fantasize he will be. There are lots of sharks out there and I believe Hillary is infinitely better prepared to swim those murky waters. Drumpf – he specializes in more murk. THIS ocean has “cyber and nuclear”. You don’t simply file for divorce or declare bankruptcy in this “game”. In this game, we’re playing for LIVES!

Looking at the latest poll numbers (NY Times, citing Huff Post database), shows Drumpf polling at an average of 43.18% nationally. I’m trying to understand that level of support…

I have no problem believing that 21.59% of my fellow Americans (“half of his supporters” fall into the “basket of deplorables” As offended as a few were by Secretary Clinton’s characterization, many more seemed rather proud of that tag. In fact, they embraced it, buying t-shirts and hats etc. from profiteers. Good for them. The Constitution supports their right to share their opinions, no matter what they’re based on (fear, hate, bigotry, misogyny, racism, a grossly over armed populace…)

And I have no problem believing that 20% of non-deplorable (generally speaking) Americans are simply dyed in the wool Republicans – they’ll vote red no matter what.

It is a few other folks who might decide our future as a nation, the nation we hope will continue to shine the light and lead the world.

When they were young, my kids asked me what the main difference between Republicans and Democrats was. After giving it some thought, I answered:

“Generally speaking, Republicans seem angry at everyone and everything, especially ‘the Government’, and they vent their rage by pointing fingers at others, while offering few positive solutions. In fact, they seem to relish saying NO to any solution put forward. Democrats, are ‘full of hope’, want to believe everything will be better in the future if we all just get along, often expressing this by trying to baby proof the entire country with speed bumps, an overabundance of handicap parking spots and ‘tactile warning devices’. In the end, everything is about money, although in a rare show of non-partisanship, both parties will deny this vehemently”.

I believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle, of course. Both “sides” seem thoroughly entrenched in their little frames, keeping real progress to a minimum.

For me, while I project more of an extreme left position, when I’m alone with me, I have to admit that I’m merely a bit left of center. Which brings me back to the start of this rant – the values of the Democratic Party are more in line with my hopefulness that we can support each other as a people, that Americans can stop the insanely self-destructive love affair with firearms, and that we can all choose love and peace over fear and hatred. To me, the latter is what Drumpf represents, and his voice, along with the deplorables who hear this dog whistle, needs to recede into the background of our national conversation.

I’m voting Blue.

Clinton Trump

100 words on what’s really at stake on November 8th

My liberal friends.

Hillary? Bernie?
Not the most important candidates this November…

If we’ve learned one thing over the Obama years, it’s that Republicans have shown a great willingness to hold their collective breath until America turns blue.

So, grant them their wish. Please! Turn America blue.

Without control of the House or the Senate, President Sanders (or Clinton II) will endure much the same struggle Barack Obama has. The IMPORTANT elections this fall will be in the Congress.

Who are your Representatives? They are up for election.
Who are your Senators? Are they up for re-election this year?

VOTE!

100 (and last) words on Trump

America’s most despised “leader” is increasingly unlikely to be his party’s nominee. And he has no chance of winning general election. Even Bernie, the candidate the press pretends doesn’t exist, beats him in a landslide.

Trump’s “success” is driven by an absurd amount of media coverage. They cover this buffoon because it makes rubberneckers, like me, turn the TV on. He’s Zika, he’s a mining disaster, a train derailment, a 20 car collision, all rolled into one.

And I am tired of it. Trump is irrelevant. All he breeds is ignorance and hate.

I will not talk about him anymore.

Drumpf hate